America, please be safe.

"Svend" (svend) 03/19/2020 at 22:07 • Filed to: None

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As of 3 0 minutes ago it was 14,265 cases, 218 deceased.

In the last 20, there has been a further 34 cases.

At 02:18 it’s 14,299 cases. 

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

Kat Callahan > Svend 03/19/2020 at 22:21

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Japan has barely tested anyone. I am really worried. I feel like we have done next to nothing. Hyogo and Osaka prefectures just banned cross-prefectural travel. I think we somehow magically got spared during the first round and are about to be hit with a second, or it’s been incubating this whole time. This is a big three day weekend, and it’s beautiful weather for flower viewing, and I am deeply afraid people are going to go out in party in large groups.

Nick Has an Exocet > Svend 03/19/2020 at 22:25

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For the next 4 days, US cases are going to seemingly skyrocket but it’s due to test kits rolling out.

WRXforScience > Svend 03/19/2020 at 22:26

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US cases are also on a delay thanks to about a 10 day backlog of tests. Many of the “new” cases are actually from people who were tested a week ago and are just now being counted. This also means that we’re farther along the curve than our previous numbers would suggest and we’re closer to the exponential growth portion of the s-curve.

The next month is going to be rough.

Thisismydisplayname > Kat Callahan 03/19/2020 at 22:26

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Well I guess that’s one way to keep the numbers down on how many cases. Kind of like here in the states. Nobody knows exactly how bad it is with so many folks carrying and being a symptomatic.  

PatBateman > Kat Callahan 03/19/2020 at 22:30

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Are you able to stay inside/self-quarantine/social distance yourself? Because d o that.

ranwhenparked > Svend 03/19/2020 at 22:31

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Its already too late to stop it from spreading, that probably went out the window way back when China decided containing the spread of information was the higher priority.

And I think its probably too late to even flatten the curve, the fact that measures have to keep getting stricter and stricter shows that the strategy isn’t working, if it was, we should be nearly out of the initial two week period by now, instead of extending it with new restrictions. I think our leaders know it too, they just don’t want to admit defeat.

T his is going to be as bad as the 1918 flu pandemic when its all over. We lost 0.5% of our population then, that would be like 1.6 million today.

PatBateman > Svend 03/19/2020 at 22:32

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C’moooooooon vaccine!!!!

themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles > Nick Has an Exocet 03/19/2020 at 22:32

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This is true, but the hard part is sussing out where those new positive cases have been and seeing who else may have been affected. The number only tells part of the story.... 

fintail > Svend 03/19/2020 at 22:35

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Given the demographic and geographic links between BC and WA, I am surprised Vancouver /Canada hasn’t had an outbreak yet. I suspect/fear that will be the next hot spot.

fintail > Nick Has an Exocet 03/19/2020 at 22:35

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With how many lack medical care, and the less than first world nature of some parts of the US, I wonder how many cases and deaths have occurred in the past month that are unre ported.

facw > ranwhenparked 03/19/2020 at 22:38

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I don’t think that’s true. The harshest restrictions started Friday, and only in a few places. And the fact that we are seeing more cases now is largely about finally having some test capacity, rather than rampaging spread.

facw > PatBateman 03/19/2020 at 22:39

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You’re going to be waiting a while for that. We can hope existing drugs do something useful, though it sounds like one trial in China hasn’t shown any effectiveness.

ranwhenparked > facw 03/19/2020 at 22:41

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Right, we would be halfway through, which means there should be light at the end of the tunnel if social distancing was working. But the end seems to be getting further away. This includes the places that started the clock running last week.

I agree that the spike in diagnosed numbers could probably be  because people, including asymptomatic people, are finally being tested, but it isn’t really being interpreted that way generally.

facw > Svend 03/19/2020 at 22:44

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Yeah, can you tell testing is finally happening?

New York has gone from 1300 to 2300 to 3100 to 5300 over a span of around three days, and I suspect that is mostly testing rather than huge spr ead (though obviously spreading is happening) .

It’s a step in the right direction though, finding out how big the problem is is much better than pretending it doesn’t exist.

I’m worried about you guys as well, seems like it was mostly ignored over there until Monday.

Svend > Kat Callahan 03/19/2020 at 22:45

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It’s both the older generation with, ‘I’ve lived through worse, etc...’ and the younger generation and, ‘I’m young, it won’t affect me’. Both taking great risks and it’s the majority or those in between trying to rain them in, granted some are, ‘fake news, etc...’.

It’s all so infuriating.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > Svend 03/19/2020 at 22:46

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The entire state of California goes into mandatory stay-home tonight, following several counties in the San Francisco area declaring it on Monday. I’m expecting the case count to spike like New York as the hiding infections gradually reveal their true numbers. I just hope we still have a leg up relative to Wuhan in December and Italy a few weeks ago. Worst case the potential case count in ‘Murica could top everyone else because we didn’t take it seriously until it was too late.

PatBateman > facw 03/19/2020 at 22:46

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It has a mortality rate of around 3.5%, with the majority of that being older patients. The symptoms are treatable, and the virus itself is mostly survivable.

Would be nice to get the vaccine by July, though. 

ITA97, now with more Jag @ opposite-lock.com > themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles 03/19/2020 at 22:47

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In terms of those numbers, we’re probably close to the  end of being able to do contact tracing of positive folks and learn anything meaningful from it.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > Thisismydisplayname 03/19/2020 at 22:48

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To put it in perspective, this is basically how it went in every hard-hit country. Nobody wants to do an autopsy on a potential Covid-19 victim. So, straight to the crematorium with no cause of death.  It happened in China and now it's happening in Italy and Iran.

facw > ranwhenparked 03/19/2020 at 22:49

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We could easily be half way through, but because we had tested nearly no one before last week, we have no idea what half way is. People can’t spread it if they are interacting, so new cases should be dropping, but until we have widespread testing we are still going to find a huge number of people who already have it. I wouldn’t freak about the rapidly increasing numbers as long as we have measures in place to avoid infection. They mean the system is finally getting caught up. I worry when I hear people saying we need to save tests for the sick, or that we should give up on trying to prevent transmission because people should be able to make their own decisions about the risk.

Svend > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 03/19/2020 at 22:50

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Italy has topped China for deaths, currently 3,405 to China’s 3,248.

ranwhenparked > facw 03/19/2020 at 22:53

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Coronaviruses have traditionally been very difficult to vaccinate against

ranwhenparked > facw 03/19/2020 at 22:57

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Right now, I’m freaking about what’s going to happen if containment goes on indefinitely , even if it conclusively fails. I would feel a lot better if I trusted that a trial and error process was in place where strategies will be abandoned if they’re shown to have failed, and something new tried. We don’t know that its failed yet, but if we do ultimately find out that it has, there would be no sense in prolonging it beyond that point. We know that poverty and homelessness are also deadly, and we are going to have more of both than we’ve ever seen before. 

facw > PatBateman 03/19/2020 at 23:01

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If we are lucky, safety testing on a vaccine could be done by July. It would still need effectiveness testing (I guess you could give it to everyone without knowing if it was effective, as long as it was safe, but that could be a mess, especially because nothing is 100% safe). The best case timeline medical professionals have been willing to commit to is 12-18 months.

Also bear in mind that we have never successfully created a vaccine for any coronavirus. Not ones associated with the common cold, not SARS, and not MERS. We have some cool new tricks at our disposal, and a lot more research effort for a new vaccine now, so that shouldn’t be taken to mean it’s impossible, but it does imply that we shouldn’t take it for granted that we can develop a successful vaccine along the minimum timelines for safety and effectiveness testing.

The good news is that we don’t need to lock down until there’s a vaccine. We just need to slow transmission enough that our testing can catch up and our hospitals aren’t overwhelmed. With that accomplished we can aggressively track and test contacts, and isolate only those who are sick, letting everyone else go about their lives relatively normally.

facw > ranwhenparked 03/19/2020 at 23:03

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Yep, I just replied saying the same. In fact I don’t think we’ve ever made a vaccine for one. There are reasons to believe this time will be different, but lockdown until there’s a vaccine is definitely not a viable strategy.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > fintail 03/19/2020 at 23:05

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Has B.C. declared a state of emergency yet? I haven't been following federal news too closely.

wafflesnfalafel > Svend 03/19/2020 at 23:08

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thank you sir - we are three blocks from the initial ground zero senior care facility that made the press and the husband of one of the women I have worked with for the last 10 years just ended up on a respirator. Sh!t’s gettin’ real...

ranwhenparked > facw 03/19/2020 at 23:08

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I like the idea of heard of treating it like a car on ice without antilock brakes. Wait till cases level out to a number the healthcare system can handle, release restrictions, then put them back on again if/when another spike occurs, and just keep doing repeatedly that for the next 30 years or so until the current at-risk population gradually dies off through natural causes . Eventually, it might settle into a somewhat predictable cycle that people can sort of plan their lives around. 

By then, we’ll have a world full of people who all got it young and have the immunities to fight if off when they get it again later in life.

Nick Has an Exocet > fintail 03/19/2020 at 23:11

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Unclear. There appear to be 2 strains. One that's more deadly but less transmittable.

facw > ranwhenparked 03/19/2020 at 23:12

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The thing is the virus physically can’t spread when things are locked down. So it can’t really fail in that regard. Continued spread just means that the lockdown isn’t being enforced well enough and needs to be tighter.

It could of course however do more damage than disease, and that’s something that I hope is being considered. However, at this point I don’t think that’s the case. There have been a large number of layoffs, and the stock market is massively down, but you can’t assume that we’d just be continuing like normal either. Large numbers of people getting sick (and potentially dying would spook the markets and cause consumers to stay home regardless. It’s important to remember that the vast majority of the country isn’t under any sort of lockdown our quarantine order. The CDC’s guidance to limit gatherings isn’t binding (and excludes a lot of things). And yet we are still here. And we were going this way even as the president was doing his best to convince people and the markets that all was well. So it’s not like lifting these restrictions is just suddenly going to restore the economy.

If we want things to get better economically, we have to deal with the virus, we can’t just ignore it.

Svend > wafflesnfalafel 03/19/2020 at 23:17

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Stay safe and well. There’s so much going on out there. 

facw > ranwhenparked 03/19/2020 at 23:20

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It might work like that, but there are three big problems.

The number of cases we can handle is currently quite low. Trying to m aximize efficiency (at least within the broken confines of our own flawed system) has left very little surge capacity for emergency. That’s fine for the most part, because we can send patients to other hospitals if a crisis overwhelms one, but it doesn’t help if every hospital is overwhelmed.

People would have a hard to adapting to that sort of rolling restriction. Already we can see getting people to comply is difficult, and it will be more difficult if we aren’t really fixing the issue.

It’s not clear that there will be lifetime immunity. Many diseases work like that, but my understanding is that for coronaviruses, immunity tends to fade after about a year. If that ends up being the case, we will need either a vaccine or a medicine that will at least help. Otherwise we are just accepting a virus that even with good hospital availability is an order of magnitude more deadly than the flu.

ranwhenparked > facw 03/19/2020 at 23:20

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Because you can’t lock people down enough for it to work. People need to go out occasionally to get food and basic supplies, and large numbers of people are going to keep needing to go to work regardless (if you want electricity, water, sewer, hospitals, police, etc. to all still function), transmission will keep happening there. The more places close, the more people get funneled into the few that stay open, grocery stores are a disaster for social distancing right now.

Look, I’m just venting because I’m just  kind of pissed off that I’m going to have to die pretty soon, I was hoping to have another 50ish years give or take, but easy come, easy go. 

ranwhenparked > facw 03/19/2020 at 23:22

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Well, there’s no alternative. There isn’t ever going to be a vaccine, we can’t keep the entire world’s population locked down and isolated from each other for the rest of time, and this is probably endemic now, so its always going to be around and people are always going to get it and some of them are always going to die from it. All we can do is hope that we can manage to incorporate it into our life in some quasi  manageable way.

facw > ranwhenparked 03/19/2020 at 23:28

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China was apparently able to lock down things enough to stop the spread (no new domestic cases yesterday), despite things getting out of control for a bit (this assumes we can trust reporting from China, but at the moment people seem to think the numbers are legitimate, or close to it).

Other countries like South Korea, Taiwan (if China has me assassinated for calling Ta iwan a country, please avenge my death), and Singapore have also capped this, though they started from somewhat easier points . Even Italy, mess that it is appears to have new infections under control right now.

As I said before, we don’t need to keep everyone on lockdown. We only need to do that for the sick. The problem right now is that we don’t know who is sick, but we are finally finding out.

In any event, I’m not expecting you to die soon. Stay with us buddy!

ranwhenparked > facw 03/19/2020 at 23:34

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That’s the problem, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea are all fairly small countries, and China was able to clamp it down into a fairly small area of theirs. Plus, their society lends itself much better to draconian social control, people are used to it, and they already have the state security and surveillance apparatus in place to implement and enforce it. Singapore has basically a kinder and gentler version of that already, they’re like if a gated HOA community was made into its own country.

Oh, I’m going to wait it out until it gets real bad, then decide from there, will give it at least until the paychecks stop. But I at least have contingencies in place. Already reviewed/ updated beneficiaries on my accounts today and threw out a bunch of embarrassing stuff I wouldn’t want people to find.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > ranwhenparked 03/19/2020 at 23:41

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taiwans population is 23 million, 51,mil. If it can work there, it can work here. 

fintail > BaconSandwich is tasty. 03/19/2020 at 23:41

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Yep I believe so.  The numbers so far appear to be much less than the WA hot zone, and I am kind of surprised.

ranwhenparked > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 03/19/2020 at 23:45

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So, a little bigger than New York, a lot smaller than California,  a little smaller than Texas. Multiply it by about 16, and that’s the level of difficulty we’ll have replicating them.

LastFirstMI is my name > Svend 03/19/2020 at 23:53

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That sounds about right. There are probably 10 undiagnosed cases for every known case.

We expect to see a doubling of the number of cases every 3 days, so in 30 days there will be 1000 times the number of cases . AND increased detection through test availability. AND we didn’t learn from Italy (or France or Spain) and were delayed in taking effective action.

So if there are 14,000 cases now, it’ll be 30,000 by Monday, and 14,0 00, 000 by next month. Multiply that by a 1.4% fatality rate, expect somewhere around 20 0,000 deaths in the US in the next month unless we can effectively  slow the spread. This may be a little better if hydroxychloroquine helps or if we find other drugs that work.

Stay home! Tell your stubborn parents/grandparents to stay home!

Kat Callahan > PatBateman 03/19/2020 at 23:53

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UN system went mandatory telecommuting. I only went to the office once this week. I will not go in person next week at all. I have only been leaving my apartment for groceries or important (usually financial/bills) reasons. I think I average two or three days without leaving the apartment at all before one of these exceptions.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > ranwhenparked 03/19/2020 at 23:54

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south korea is 51mil. We’tre about to find out if it helps in California

fintail > wafflesnfalafel 03/19/2020 at 23:58

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Ugh.

The last hockey game I played was at Kingsgate, back in the day when things were open  - a week ago seems like a year now. A guy on my team joked that he put his car on recirc when driving past that area on 405. Now it’s not as funny.

wafflesnfalafel > fintail 03/20/2020 at 00:12

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the casino across the street has still been busy!  :)

Svend > LastFirstMI is my name 03/20/2020 at 00:19

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Keep yourself and your family safe mate, it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better. 

fintail > wafflesnfalafel 03/20/2020 at 00:21

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Not sure I’d want what I could maybe “win” there these days.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > PatBateman 03/20/2020 at 00:29

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But 3.5% of 327.2 millions Americans comes out to... 11,452,000 dead Americans. Not accounting for distribution age groups, health conditions, etc.... But no matter how you slice it, if it really is 3.5%, and we don’t have an effective treatment or quarantine, that’s a lot of dead.

facw > facw 03/20/2020 at 00:30

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Update NY now at 5700...

facw > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 03/20/2020 at 00:36

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Under most models, even for the worst case, people aren’t assuming 100% transmission. But 40-70% are realistic worst case numbers, and 40-70% of 11.4M is still way too many people.

That leads to the extreme approach we have today. The fatality rate seems highly tied to availability of sufficient care. If we can slow infection enough that we don’t run out of ventilators  and beds, we can reasonably expect to cut that number to below 1%. Meanwhile, obviously slowing the spread short term will lower the percentage of people infected short term. It may or may not help long term depending on how well we do other things, but it buys time to test and trace properly, or to develop treatments, both of which could have durable effects shutting down the spread.

DipodomysDeserti > LastFirstMI is my name 03/20/2020 at 00:39

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If there really are 10x more cases then confirmed, then the current morbidity rate is going to be off by a factor of ten, making it about as deadly as the current flu (with people getting vaccinated for it).

I’m not saying your 10x estimation are true or not, but if they are true we should all breathe a sigh of relief.

LastFirstMI is my name > Svend 03/20/2020 at 00:45

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I’ve convinced my mom to quarantine, so that’s comforting. My mother-in-law is in denial and Shockingly! isn’t listening to my wife. Maybe curiosity killed the cat, but stubbornness will kill the mum.

The UK is playing a dangerous game of “let it run” while hoping to quarantine the at-risk. It’s a gamble that will pay off if they can get herd immunity and stop transmission  among the healthy people without losing all the old first. In a few months we’ll know which approach was better...

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > Svend 03/20/2020 at 00:47

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China has a lot of homework to determine a more accurate case count. Yes, one could argue that Italy is in the same position, but China is an order of magnitude bigger.

Given that they had much less information in December than we do now, plus a few doctors that were pressured into retracting earlier warnings, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an adjustment to actual infection and death counts by a factor of 2 simply due to unexplained deaths and immediate cremations that may have been Covid19. I’m going to assume that the various mortuaries and crematoria in the Wuhan area were not prepared to handle infected dead bodies on this scale.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Svend 03/20/2020 at 00:51

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oh its going to be a shitshow. It’ s going to be Italy 2.0. instead of ripping the bandaid off and shutting down, this country is going to only going to implement incremental changes, dragging it out.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > Svend 03/20/2020 at 00:54

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Back when news media sold on accuracy, there was less mass hysteria. Now that news media sells on sensationalism and pushes subtle narratives , people are resorting to their own “information gathering” which is even less reliable than those who do it for a living.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > facw 03/20/2020 at 00:55

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This also pretty much exposes our infrastructure for what it is: wholly unimpressive. My coworker who was out 2 weeks with a bad flu, who was exposed to a known COVID19 patient, and was refused testing at multiple health care centers because she wasn’t in an “at risk” bracket (she’s young and has no respiratory issues). Maybe the story would be different if she were sick today, but two weeks ago, she was made to feel she didn’t matter, AND she couldn’t get proof of illness OR wellness for her employer...

LastFirstMI is my name > DipodomysDeserti 03/20/2020 at 01:00

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If the morbidity really is 10x lower, but there are 10x more cases = same net number of dead people in the short term.

My hope is that this epidemic actually started months ago, and we are closer to the peak than we realize. This would explain the apparent high infectivity rate; maybe people are catching it everywhere, not just from the cases being traced. I saw a patient in the ICU with Coronavirus January 1, who knows if it was COVID 19 because nobody was testing for it..... This is the one scenario where we walk away from this with a one month socioeconomic  inconvenience rather than 1.5 million dead Americans.

330,000,000 ‘’Mericans, x estimated 70% infection rate. 1.4% fatality rate, that’s 3.2 million. Divide that in half based on our confidence in our medical system and you still have 1.6 mil. Let’s hope the early numbers are wrong, but act as if they aren’t.

DipodomysDeserti > ranwhenparked 03/20/2020 at 01:02

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The Spanish flu killed mostly healthy individuals and was way deadlier, causing hemorrhagic fever (bleeding out of eyes, ears, nose...). The world was also fighting then in recovery from the worst war on record.Trench warfare caused the harsher strain to be naturally selected (which is usually the opposite of what happens) as sicker soldiers were sent home to spread the virus. You’re also comparing healthcare from 1918 to today (a whole bunch of people actually died of aspirin poisoning in 1918).

Even by the current mortali ty estimates for Covid 19 (which are probably high because of non detection) the Spanish flu was more than 10x deadlier.

We’re really gonna need to mandate microbiology courses after this whole rodeo, because people aren’t thinking rationally.

Svend > LastFirstMI is my name 03/20/2020 at 01:13

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Good, but the stubborn one, not so good. It’s not just putting herself at risk but others she then comes in contact with. 

The U.K. approach has already been shouted about and things changed. The ‘H erd Immunity’ was an MP sounding his opinion, not an actual policy.

In Boris Johnson’s first daily update on Monday he acknowledged the economy was facing “a severe blow” because of the virus.

The key new measures he announced included:

Everyone should avoid gatherings with friends and family, as well as large gatherings and crowded places, such as pubs, clubs and theatres

People should avoid non-essential travel and work from home if they can

All “unnecessary” visits to friends and relatives in care homes should cease

People should only use the NHS “where we really need to” - and can reduce the burden on workers by getting advice on the NHS website where possible

By the weekend, those with the most serious health conditions must be “largely shielded from social contact for around 12 weeks”

If one person in any household has a persistent cough or fever, everyone living there must stay at home for 14 days

Those people should, if possible, avoid leaving the house “even to buy food or essentials” - but they may leave the house “for exercise and, in that case, at a safe distance from others”

Schools will not be closed for the moment (many are closing on a case by case or area situation).

Under the guidance, people who should be “particularly stringent” in minimising their social contact are:

People over the age of 70

Other adults who would normally be advised to have the flu vaccine (such as those with chronic diseases)

Pregnant women

DipodomysDeserti > LastFirstMI is my name 03/20/2020 at 01:50

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“ If the morbidity really is 10x lower, but there are 10x more cases = same net number of dead people in the short term.”

In the very short term. High morbidity and low mortality means heard immunity kicks in and infection rates drop, similar to measles. Without a vaccine you’ll have outbreaks every few years, but it’s not some society ending superbug. Granted, this virus is new, and we don’t know how to treat it yet, but every virus was like that at some point, without the technological aids we have today.

To put it in perspective, measles is one of, if not the most infectious diseases we know of. It has an Ro of 18, and had a morbidity rate of nearly 100% for the adult population in the US before a vaccine was developed. It had a reported fatality rate of 0.2% from the ‘80s into the ‘90s, and we figured out how to stop that one in the ‘60s...

Should you be concerned? Yes, we have a brand new thing that can make us sick. Should we be panicking? No, we’ve been dealing with stuff like this since we first started practicing medicine. I understand people are afraid, but the level of fear is not rational, assuming all the info we have is accurate.

A brand new, highly contagious virus that started in a city of 12 million in China (who bungled the initial response) , and only managed to kill 3k people in its first wave is a very good sign. We’ve dealt with a lot worse.

LastFirstMI is my name > DipodomysDeserti 03/20/2020 at 02:06

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Yeah, my theory is that we’re actually further along the curve, but until we have data to confirm that, I’m going along with the social isolation. Ok so I was doing that anyway, now I have an  excuse. 

SmugAardvark > LastFirstMI is my name 03/20/2020 at 02:10

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Wish I could stay home. I’ll probably be one of the last people that gets to stay home from work until I actually catch the virus. Ugh...

DipodomysDeserti > LastFirstMI is my name 03/20/2020 at 02:15

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I’m a little concerned that people with few social interactions to begin with are getting very anxious , resulting in a poor response.

Understandable, but I’d encourage everyone to increase their knowledge (with good sources) rather than react. Unfortunately it takes quite a bit of prior knowledge to understand the good data (or even recognize it).

We should all always use good hygiene when in public.

pip bip - choose Corrour > Svend 03/20/2020 at 05:02

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we have now got 7 dead. 

BigBlock440 > DipodomysDeserti 03/20/2020 at 08:15

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No, it’d still be about 3x as deadly, which is the estimate people were using since the beginning . (3.4% to 0.3%, flu is 0.1%). South Korea is showing it’s around 0 .5%, they’re testing everybody.

/could be outdated, last I read on it was earlier this week

PatBateman > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo 03/20/2020 at 08:37

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No no, 3.5% of people who catch it die.  Right now, Italy, for example, has 41,000 cases.  That means that .067% of their population has it.  We’ll see if the percentage stays below 1%, but if these statistics hold true with the US, that would be great for keeping the virus controllable until it can be reigned in. 

Svend > pip bip - choose Corrour 03/20/2020 at 09:02

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Sorry to hear that. 

BigBlock440 > DipodomysDeserti 03/20/2020 at 09:13

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and had a morbidity rate of nearly 100% for the adult population in the US before a vaccine was developed. 

Source? The highest I’m finding is 15%, with the CDC listing the fatality rate pre-vaccine at 0.1% of reported cases, 0.02% of estimated cases.

DipodomysDeserti > BigBlock440 03/20/2020 at 10:14

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https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/meas.html

Per the CDC, plus it’s common historical knowledge:

“ Before a vaccine was available, infection with measles virus was nearly universal during childhood, and more than 90% of persons were immune by age 15 years.”

Not sure where you’re getting your mortality rate as it’s also listed as o.2% in this link.

“ Death from measles was reported in approximately 0.2% of the cases in the United States from 1985 through 1992.”

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > PatBateman 03/20/2020 at 11:27

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With no successful quarantine plan, everyone WILL catch  it eventually.

BigBlock440 > DipodomysDeserti 04/20/2020 at 14:11

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I was not able to find a 100% mortality rate in that link.  As for the .02%, I’m not able to find it again, it looks like it might have been my messing up the “1 or 2 out of 1,000", though I thought I saw it written as 0.02% on a CDC powerpoint.

DipodomysDeserti > BigBlock440 04/20/2020 at 14:43

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These are direct quotes from the article:

“Before a vaccine was available, infection with measles virus was nearly universal during childhood, and more than 90% of persons were immune by age 15 years.” (3rd paragraph)

“Death from measles was reported in approximately 0.2% of the cases in the United States from 1985 through 1992. As with other complications of measles, the risk of death is highest among young children and adults. Pneumonia accounts for about 60% of deaths. The most common causes of death are pneumonia in children and acute encephalitis in adults.” (4th paragraph under ‘Complications’)

BigBlock440 > DipodomysDeserti 04/20/2020 at 15:33

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I see, I was misreading morbidity for mortality.